In September 2021, Colonel Mamadi Dunbuya, commander of Guinea's special forces, launched a military coup, announcing that his troops had taken control of the country and detained President Alpha Cond é. At the same time, the government of Guinea was officially dissolved, the constitution was abolished, and the land and air borders were closed. After 13 years, Guinea has once again undergone a regime change in the form of a coup. Coup leader Dunbouya immediately reassured investors from various countries, promising to abide by existing bilateral and multilateral agreements, lift curfew measures in mining areas, and ensure the continued operation of mining enterprises. I hope foreign-funded enterprises will not be affected by the changing situation in Guinea and maintain normal production and operation.

Comment: Guinea is the world's largest bauxite resource country, with proven reserves exceeding 7.4 billion tons, mostly high-quality and easily exploitable resources. In addition, Guinea also has the world's largest undeveloped high-grade iron ore. The arrival of Chinese investors has helped Guinea's bauxite development soar, with bauxite production soaring from 18 million tons in 2015 to 82 million tons in 2020, becoming the world's second-largest bauxite producer. In 2020, 52.67 million tons of bauxite were exported to China. The risk of regime subversion is one of the most serious risks in international mining investment. As a new hotspot for mining investment on the African continent, Guinea's political turmoil is affecting the nerves of the international mining industry. After the coup, aluminum prices were pushed to a 10-year high. Although the current political situation is stable, what truly reassures investors is not only the stable status quo, but also the stable expectations.

Congolese President Tshisekedi, Mining Minister Nsamba, and Chairman of the National Mining Corporation Yuma, among others, have repeatedly criticized the previous government's mining agreements with multinational corporations for fraud and injustice since April. They accuse international giants of using financial arrangements to prevent the country from receiving dividends and causing significant losses to its national fiscal revenue. Non governmental organizations such as the "Initiative for Transparency in the Mining Industry" and international media have also used research reports and in-depth coverage to build momentum for the government of the Democratic Republic of Congo. The government of the Democratic Republic of Congo subsequently initiated a re examination and financial audit of contracts for some large-scale mining projects. President Zisekdi proposed mining rectification measures in November, suspending the issuance of mining rights licenses, conducting an investigation into the fulfillment of social responsibilities by mining enterprises, and supervising the implementation of government acquisition of shares in mining companies.

Commentary: The cobalt resources of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) occupy an absolute advantage in the world and will also develop into one of the world's major copper producing countries in the coming years. Therefore, the copper cobalt resources of the DRC have become a focus of attention for investors and even governments around the world. Relying on its advantageous position in resource endowment, the Democratic Republic of Congo has gradually tightened its domestic mining policies since the introduction of the new Mining Law in 2018, including raising tax rates, banning copper concentrate exports, increasing government shareholding, and levying social contribution funds. The measures taken in this round, which mainly focus on reviewing mining contracts, have had a significant impact on the reviewed investors, and political risks are more prominent in mining investment risks in the Democratic Republic of Congo.

Zambia's state-owned joint copper investment company (ZCCM) completed its equity acquisition of Mopani Copper Mining Company in January of this year. Jia Neng sold a majority stake in Mopani Company to the Zambian government for $1, and the Zambian government also assumed an additional $1.5 billion in debt. The specific method is for the Zambian government to sign a $1.5 billion underwriting agreement with Glencore, with a payment of 10% of copper production over the next 10 to 17 years, depending on international copper prices. The Zambian government had many conflicts with Glencore over the operation of Mopani Copper Mine Company before. In April 2020, Glencore could stop production and maintain Mopani and demobilize mining staff on the ground of COVID-19, but the government refused and threatened to revoke Mopani's mining license. In addition, the government temporarily detained Mopani's mine director at the airport before leaving. Glencore has appealed against the decision of the Zambian Ministry of Mines to reject its proposed suspension of operations.

Commentary: Zambia is the second largest copper producing country in Africa, and Mopani Mining Company is a joint venture between Glencore, First Quantum, and Zambia's state-owned joint copper investment company. It controls two super large copper mines, Mufulira and Nkana, as well as related beneficiation and smelting plants and other assets. In November 2020, Zambia became the first African country to default on its sovereign debt during the pandemic. The government led by then President Lungu hoped to strengthen the country's control over mining to alleviate the financial crisis, and nationalizing Mopani was just part of a series of actions. Previously, the Zambian government was embroiled in a long-standing dispute with mining giant Vedanta, and international investors were skeptical about Zambia's mining investment environment. Opposition leader Shichiraima won the August election and changed his attitude towards foreign mining investment after taking office. He stated that the government will consult with stakeholders to review the mining tax policy framework and ensure that mining industry investment is predictable and sustainable. Whether these measures can ease the tense relationship between the government and international mining giants remains to be further observed.

Gabriel Boric, the 35 year old candidate of the left-wing political party alliance "Pro Dignity" in Chile, won the presidential election in December, becoming the youngest president in Chilean history. The mining policies announced by Boric during his campaign mainly include emphasizing climate change and clean energy development, calling for the establishment of an integrated royalty system, enhancing the localization of the industrial chain, paying attention to environmental protection, and strengthening infrastructure construction.

The Chilean Congress passed a royalty bill in March, which proposes to impose a 3% royalty on companies that produce over 12000 tons of copper and 50000 tons of lithium annually, and implement a tiered tax rate based on changes in mineral prices. In May, the lower house of Congress once again passed the revised royalty bill, proposing a floating tax on copper. When the copper price exceeds $4 per pound, miners are required to pay a marginal tax rate of up to 75%. The bill has been strongly opposed by the Chilean Mining Association and mining companies, and has undergone multiple rounds of revisions since its proposal. It is currently in the discussion stage.

Commentary: Chile is the world's largest copper mining resource and producer, as well as the world's largest lithium mining resource and second largest producer. The development of copper and lithium resources is the backbone of Chile's national economy. Chile's new policies on copper and lithium will not only stir up the domestic investment environment, but also transmit to neighboring countries and even the international community. Both President Boric's campaign promises and the fiercely discussed royalty bill reflect the rising global sentiment of resource nationalism. The two most important manifestations of this sentiment in Latin America are tax increases and localization of industrial chains. The impact of tax increases in resource rich countries like Chile will be transmitted to the world through rising mineral prices, and localization of industrial chains will be the trend of global mining investment after the pandemic. Early adaptation and early layout are necessary to gain an advantage in the new round of competition.

Peru's newly elected president Pedro Castillo officially took office in July. During his campaign, Castillo stated that he would push for the cancellation of tax stability agreements with large mining companies, review stability agreements for 27 large mining projects, introduce new policies to retain 70% of Peru's mining profits, and even threaten to nationalize some resources. After taking office as president, although he did not take radical measures as mentioned in the campaign, he still proposed policies such as nationalizing natural gas, modifying royalties, corporate income tax, and implementing a "special tax" when metal prices skyrocketed. He also cited IMF research findings and planned to increase mining tax rates by 4%.

The world's ninth largest copper mine, Las Bambas, operated by MMG, had to shut down again in December after a 27 day community road blockade. Since 2016, the mine has been suspended for nearly 400 days due to community protests and blockades. The Cerro Lindo zinc mine operated by Nexa Resources also suspended production in the same week due to similar road closures.
Comment: The new president of Peru comes from the grassroots of society and is known as the spokesperson for the middle and lower classes of the left. He won the election by relying on his down-to-earth political image and campaign promises that benefited the lower classes. The new government's mining policy is currently being formulated, and the specific terms are not yet known. However, it is clear that the government has chosen the former in the balance of increasing fiscal revenue and enhancing competitiveness in attracting mining investment. The new Peruvian government has failed to alleviate the persistent community conflicts in mining activities, but has been questioned by the Peruvian Chinese Chamber of Commerce for lacking decision-making in this round of conflict due to its failure to play its due positive role.

Kyrgyzstan's newly elected President Zaparov signed an order in January prohibiting foreign-funded enterprises from mining national level mineral resources, and national level mines will be completely mined by wholly-owned state-owned enterprises. In July, it was further proposed that when developing mineral resources that do not belong to the national level, the proportion of national shareholding will be stipulated. In November, the cabinet issued a temporary ban on issuing new geological exploration, prospecting, and development permits related to gold, silver, and copper mines. In addition, the government has been embroiled in a years long dispute with Canada's Centerra Gold Company over the world's largest in production gold mine, Kumtor. In March, a $100 million claim was filed against Centerra Gold Company, and in May, parliament passed a law allowing the country to temporarily take over mining companies if their activities pose a threat to human life or the environment. Subsequently, the court fined Centerra Gold Company $3.1 billion for environmental issues and forcibly took over the Kumtor mine 10 days later.

Commentary: Zaparov was once sentenced to prison for attempting to violently seize power during the 2012 riots demanding the nationalization of the Kumtor gold mine. In 2020, Zaparov returned to the public eye and successively served as Prime Minister and Acting President, emphasizing that nationalization is no longer his goal and that mining companies should serve the interests of the people and will try to promote the redistribution of benefits. In January of this year, Kyrgyzstan's political system shifted from a parliamentary system to a presidential system, and Zaparov further expanded his power and introduced a series of policies targeting foreign mining investors. Although the substantive measures taken by the government against foreign mining enterprises are currently limited to the Kumtor mine, the trend of introducing these policies is bound to affect the confidence and enthusiasm of foreign investment in mining in Kyrgyzstan.

In the past two years, Uzbekistan has issued a series of testimonies to attract mining investment, including the presidential decree issued in April this year on further strengthening the attraction of investment in the geological industry, accelerating the transformation of mining enterprises, and expanding mineral resource bases, which has improved mining management policies and the mining management system. In June, the President passed a resolution on "Supplementary Measures for the Development of Mining and Metallurgy Industry and Related Industries", which stipulated the need to create a technology cluster for high value-added copper products and related industrial products, and to build a multi-level value chain from raw materials to finished products. In August, the President announced plans to reduce the tax rate on copper and gold mining from 10% to 7%, and tungsten from 10% to 2.7%.

Commentary: Like several other Central Asian countries, Uzbekistan went through a long process of the first president's long-term governance and difficult integration into the international market after the dissolution of the Soviet Union. After taking office in 2016, the new president Mirziyoyev actively promoted economic reforms, implemented an economic policy of opening up to the outside world, reduced administrative intervention, sold some shares of state-owned companies, and actively promoted the process of economic liberalization and privatization. The opening up of the mining industry to the outside world is an important part of President Mirziyoyev's reform. From the perspective of specific policy measures, Uzbekistan can be regarded as a "clear stream" in the rising trend of global resource nationalism.

The dispute between the Mongolian government and Rio Tinto over the expansion plan of the Oyu Tolgoi mine came to a temporary end in December, with Rio Tinto agreeing to waive the $2.3 billion debt owed by the Mongolian government for the expansion project. Mongolian Prime Minister Oyun Erdeni stated that Rio Tinto's concession will accelerate Mongolia's profitability in the mine. The Mongolian government and Rio Tinto have been embroiled in a dispute over the overspending of the expansion of the largest copper gold mine in Asia, Oyu Tolgoi. At the beginning of the year, Oyu Tolgoi, which Rio Tinto actually controls, filed a lawsuit against the Mongolian government at the International Court of Arbitration, and the Mongolian government immediately counterclaimed. The Mongolian government has repeatedly emphasized the need to ensure that the Ou Yu Tao Le Gai project is implemented in a mutually beneficial manner that is in the best interests of the Mongolian people. Rio Tinto is responsible for the delay in the development of the Ou Yu Tao Le Gai underground mine and should immediately terminate the controversial underground mine development and financing plan. It also threatens to cancel the agreement previously signed by both parties.

Comment: The Mongolian government holds 34% ownership of the Ouyutaolegai project, and the expansion project of the mine has been plagued by delays and cost overruns. Rio Tinto blames these problems on complex geological conditions, while the Mongolian investigation report believes that this is mainly caused by poor management of the operating company. According to the initial plan, the development of the Ouyutaole Gai project would bring economic takeoff to Mongolia, but in reality, the Mongolian government had to continue providing funding for its share of the underground expansion project through Rio Tinto loans. According to the financing agreement previously signed by both parties, the Mongolian government cannot receive any dividends from the project until the debt is repaid. Obviously, Mongolia has temporarily won this dispute due to its strong negotiating position as the host country. However, in the long run, this series of disputes also reveals the instability of Mongolia's mining investment environment. In addition, if international giants can truly implement the concept of "mutual benefit and win-win" and make mining development truly benefit the host country's government and people, I believe this world-class copper mining development will be a different situation.

The Indonesian government drafted a "Initial to Terminal New Energy Battery Development Plan" in March, which aims to establish a state-owned holding company and build a complete new energy battery industry chain integrating the supply of nickel ore, processing of nickel sulfate and cobalt sulfate, and production of batteries, making Indonesia a global battery manufacturing center. In the same month, the government issued a one-year permit for the export of seven types of raw ores, including copper, iron, manganese, but excluding nickel ore. It was also stated that although the export permit for raw ores was relaxed, the new regulations would not exempt mining companies from continuing to build smelters in Indonesia.

Commentary: Indonesia is the world's largest nickel ore resource and producer, benefiting from its advantageous resource endowment, which gives it an advantage in the field of new energy battery industry. In 2014, the government banned the export of nickel ore. In recent years, efforts have been made to develop nickel wet process projects. Now, Indonesia is planning to establish a complete new energy battery industry chain and layout the new energy vehicle industry. Indonesia has a clear and firm plan to transform its resource advantages into industrial and economic advantages. Indonesia is trying its best to attract capital from all over the world and introduce the world's most advanced nickel cobalt smelting and processing technology. In the future, Indonesia's major investment opportunities will be mining capacity and technical cooperation in the context of the "the Belt and Road".

Canada released the first version of its key mineral list in March, which includes 31 types of minerals such as uranium, chromium, copper, nickel, cobalt, lithium, rare earths, and graphite. In the same month, Canada released the "Guidelines for Investment National Security Review", which clearly stated that investments in foreign state-owned enterprises and private investments with close ties to foreign governments, regardless of their value, should be subject to strict scrutiny. It also mentioned that national security reviews would be initiated for acquisition transactions involving key mineral control rights. In April, Canada announced its 2021 budget, planning to invest CAD 46.4 million over the next three years to encourage the production and development of key minerals needed for batteries. In September, Western Australia released its mineral and oil resource development strategy. In the same month, the Australian government announced that it would provide AUD 2 billion in loans for key mineral projects in the country to fill the current financing gap in the critical mineral sector and ensure the successful launch of projects. In November, the United States released a new draft list of 50 key minerals.

Commentary: Canada and Australia are one of the most important destinations for global mining investment, and have long been the countries with the best mining investment environment from a Western perspective. In recent years, developed countries such as the United States, the European Union, Australia, and Canada have successively released or updated their key mineral lists, and their focus has shifted from the initial raw material supply security to the security of the supply chain and industrial chain. At the same time, they have also increased their scrutiny of foreign companies investing in their own key minerals based on the key mineral lists, which has a clear targeted meaning. Upon closer inspection of these lists, investors will find that almost all of the country's available mineral resources for investment have been included, meaning that the vast majority of investments will face security checks. For investors from non allied countries, mining investment barriers in these developed countries are rising.