新闻资讯
新闻资讯

Expected to welcome explosive growth? Really "manganese"!


Recently,manganese-related stocks have seen varying degrees of increase.As of the afternoon of February 28, shares of Southern Manganese in Hong Kong rose over 7.5%, while Xiangtan Electric Chemical in A-shares increased by 10%, and Hongxing Development rose over 10%.

In contrast, the price performance of manganese products has been relatively stable. According to Baichuan Yingfu data, as of February 28,mainstreamregionsthe ex-factory price of electrolytic manganese in the spot market is concentrated between 40,000-41,500 yuan/ton; the average price is 40,750 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week; the FOB export price of electrolytic manganese is 6,350-6,450 USD/ton, with a slight decline in high prices.

 

High oil prices make new energy more favored.

 

Due to low carbon and environmental protection needs, new energyvehicles are increasingly becoming the choice of more people.Since last year, the gradual escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict has led to record high international oil prices, further driving the growth of new energy vehicle consumption.According to the latest statistics released by the China Passenger Car Association, retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles in China reached 347,000 units in January 2022, a year-on-year increase of 132%.

The rising trend in the consumption of power batteries for new energy vehicles has led to a significant increase in the use of manganese products.According to Haitong International research report, the largest demand for Tesla's 4680 battery is for nickel, silicon, and lithium, followed by manganese, which accounts for 10% of the cathode material.In 2022, Tesla's demand for manganese sulfate was about 19,000 tons, and the demand is expected to reach 784,000 tons by 2030.

According to Baichuan Yingfu data, on February 17, the price of high-end lithium manganese oxide products has risen to 125,000 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.17% from the previous day, with a cumulative increase of over 20%, and the cumulative increase in nearly half a year has exceeded three times.Due to cost-driven factors, the price of lithium manganese oxide may enter a rapid upward phase.

 

Tight supply and slight decline in production capacity.

 

The slight decline in manganese production capacity leading to tight supply is another reason for the price increase..

According to SMM data, by the end of 2021, the total production capacity of domestic electrolytic manganese dioxide (EMD) was about 350,000-360,000 tons, but the actual output slightly decreased. It is distributed across Guangxi, Hunan, and Guizhou provinces. In the second half of this year, due to environmental protection and power restrictions, the operating rate in southern regions plummeted, coupled with short-term maintenance of production lines by some manufacturers in Hunan, leading to gradually tightening supply by the end of the year. SMM statistics show that the average price of electrolytic manganese dioxide in January 2022 was 19,300 yuan/ton, a slight increase of 6.4% compared to the average price in December 2021.SMM believes that the reasons for the rise in manganese prices in the first half of this year are partly due to increased costs and partly due to stable demand support. By the end of February, it is expected that manufacturers will still negotiate ex-factory prices around 19,500-20,000 yuan/ton.

 

Overseas cooperation, related companies invest in raw materials.

 

With the improvement of manganese deep processing capabilities and the increase in market demand, imported manganese has become an important raw material for domestic production enterprises of electrolytic metal manganese, manganese dioxide, and manganese sulfate.In 2020, China's total manganese ore importsamounted to31.67 million tons,and in 2021, China's manganese ore imports were 29.97 million tons.Our mining companies have made many investment cooperations overseas relying on efficient and environmentally friendly mining technologies, while also creating more job opportunities for local communities.Currently, China's manganese ore imports mainly come from countries such as South Africa, Ghana, Gabon, and Brazil.

Due to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, although the supply of manganese ore from Africa and Australia is continuously increasing, global manganese ore production is still declining this year. From January to August 2021, global manganese supply decreased by 1.3 million tons, a decline of 3%.

 

Technological upgrades, broader application scenarios for manganese.

 

Power batteries made from manganese as a raw material have the advantages of high performance and low cost, and can be applied in various scenarios such as new energy vehicles and wind-solar energy storage.

With the development of the new energy industry, manganese products have achieved new uses, mainly including high-purity manganese sulfate, manganese tetroxide for batteries, and high-purity electrolytic manganese. High-purity manganese sulfate is mainly used as a raw material for nickel-cobalt-manganese (NCM) ternary cathode materials. With the explosive growth of ternary materials, the market capacity for high-purity manganese sulfate has also expanded. Manganese tetroxide for batteries (Mn3O4) is gradually replacing some electrolytic manganese dioxide due to its advantages of low impurities, high purity, and uniform particle size, and it has better performance in lithium-ion batteries, with significantly better high-temperature and normal-temperature cycling performance than materials synthesized from other precursors. High-purity electrolytic manganese, due to its low zinc content (Zn≤20ppm), is an ideal raw material for battery-grade high-purity manganese sulfate.

It is understood that with the expansion of manganese in fields such as power batteries and energy storage, demand is expected to grow rapidly. Industry institutions predict thatin the next five years, lithium manganese oxide will experience explosive growth, and by 2025, market demand may reach around 400,000 tons.

 

Source: Mining Industry.

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